Binary presentation of climate data makes people take notice

How best to communicate the impact of climate change is a constant debate for policymakers, climate scientists, and activists. With changes in the climate often feeling incremental, rather than sudden, there can be a sort of 'boiling frog' effect — ultimately leading people to feel a sense of distance from the issue at hand, and an overall lack of feelings of urgency.

In a new paper in Nature Human Behaviour, Grace Liu and colleagues at UCLA and Princeton argue that instead of emphasising gradual warming to unlivable levels, presenting data that is undeniably stark in how large of a change has taken place could be one way of breaking through this apathy. They find that presenting continuous data, such as incremental changes in temperature, is far less effective than showing it in a binary form, such as whether a lake did or did not freeze in winter. These results could offer an actionable new strategy for those trying to spur action on the climate crisis.

To understand how different ways of presenting data affect how people respond to climate change, the team showed participants data presented in one of two ways over the course of several studies. The first showed temperature changes over time (continuous data) while the other simply showed whether or not a lake froze each year (binary data).

In the first experiment, 766 participants were shown climate data from a fictional town in America over the course of 80 years. Some participants saw it presented in continuous form as a smooth temperature line, while others viewed it in binary freeze/no-freeze bars. They then indicated on a scale from 1 to 10 how much they thought climate change had affected the town, how much temperatures had changed, and how much lake freezing had changed over time.

The perceived impact of climate change was significantly higher among participants in the binary condition — around 12% higher than those who saw continuous data. This group also perceived a stronger trend in increasing temperatures, and increased frequency of lake freezing. Overall, this suggests that binary data is more impactful as a way of communicating climate change than continuous data.

Next, the team conducted an experiment with real-world lake freeze data from five lakes at high risk of ice loss. In this study, 235 adults read about each lake before being shown either continuous or binary data on its temperature and answering the same questions as those in the first study. Again, those who saw binary data saw climate change as having a more severe impact, as well as believing there was a greater change in temperature in the lake.

Finally, 392 participants were introduced to another fictional winter town and assigned to either the continuous or binary condition. In the continuous condition, they saw one of three graphs showing the town's average winter temperature. In the binary condition, they saw graphs showing whether the lake froze over or not. They then indicated whether they noticed a big change in the pattern and when they thought it happened.

Participants in the binary condition were more likely to notice a change in the pattern, while those who saw continuous data were less likely to see a changepoint at all, or were more unsure about a change. Participants who viewed the binary data also showed greater consensus on the location of the changepoints by year.

The team compares public response to climate change to the proverbial boiling frog, "failing to notice the creeping danger until it is too late." Implementing smart strategies that disrupt this, like favouring binary data presentation, could therefore have a big impact by creating a perception of sudden changes that shock people into action.  

"It's not just warmer winters; it's also a loss of ice hockey and white Christmases. It's not just hotter summers; it's the disappearance of a swimming hole due to drought or soccer practice (being) cancelled because it's dangerously hot," said lead author Grace Liu in a press release. "Our study drives home the importance of discussing climate change not just in gradual temperature terms, but in concrete, either-or terms, showing how life has changed."

Read the paper in full:
Liu, G., Snell, J. C., Griffiths, T. L., & Dubey, R. (2025). Binary climate data visuals amplify perceived impact of climate change. Nature Human Behaviour. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-025-02183-9

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